By Michael Newman

TFX National Director

[email protected]

It seems like every year we go through the same discussion as we get closer to NXN Selection Saturday when the four at-large team selections are announced for each of the Nike Cross National Boys and Girls races. After the selections are announced, we question if the Selection Committee of “Experts” have gotten it right.

In the Nike Cross Nationals Website, the meet organizers clarify how the at-large teams are selected:

AT-LARGE QUALIFIERS INTO NXN FROM THE REGIONALS: A TOTAL OF FOUR AT-LARGE CLUB AND FIVE AT-LARGE INDIVDIUAL BERTHS PER GENDER WILL BE AWARDED. CLUBS PLACING EITHER THIRD OR FOURTH IN THE CHAMPIONSHIP DIVISION RACE AT EACH REGIONAL WILL MOVE INTO A POOL OF CLUBS RECEIVING CONSIDERATION FOR ADVANCING TO NXN AS AN AT-LARGE QUALIFIER.  ALL ELIGIBLE HIGH SCHOOL CROSS COUNTRY ATHLETES, INCLUDING THOSE THAT DID NOT COMPETE AT A NIKE CROSS REGIONAL EVENT, WILL BE CONSIDERED FOR AN INDIVDIUAL AT-LARGE BERTH. A COMMITTEE OF EXPERTS WILL DETERMINE THE AT-LARGE QUALIFIERS.

GREATEST WEIGHTING BY THE COMMITTEE WILL BE GIVEN TO THIRD-PLACE CLUBS FROM THE CHAMPIONSHIP RACE AT EACH REGIONAL WHO DEFEATED ANY EVENTUAL NXR CHAMPION IN PRIOR WEEKS. IN ORDER FOR THIS WEIGHTING TO BE EMPLOYED FOR THE THIRD-PLACE CLUBS, THE VICTORY MUST HAVE OCCURRED WHEN AT LEAST FIVE CLUB MEMBERS FROM THE EVENTUAL NXR CHAMPIONSHIP CLUB COMPETED IN THE SAME RACE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOSS.

The 2017 Boys At-Large Team Selections had two teams from the Southwest (Timpanagos UT and Desert Vista AZ), one from California (St. Francis- Mountain View), and one from the Southeast (Green Hope NC). Lyons Township IL seemed to be the team that was “snubbed”. What was question is how that two teams from the Southwest made it in especially the way that Timpanagos ran towards the end of the year. Desert Vista deserved to be in. They showed that by finishing eighth in Portland. But finishing fourth in their regional would mean both at-large eligible teams would need to advance. There was plenty of politicking and persuasion to get that to happen. By the way, Timpanagos finished 21^st out of 22 teams.

The 2017 Girls At-Large Team Selections had one team from the Southeast (Blacksburg VA), one team from California (Buchanan), one team from the Southwest (Broomfield CO), and one team from New York (Saratoga Springs). Questions abounded on why Saratoga Springs. They did not have a good race at the New York Regional finishing a distant third behind Fayetteville-Manlius and Liverpool. According to the Nike criteria, this traditional power found their way to Portland by finishing ahead of Southeast Regional champion Cardinal Gibbons at the Great American XC Festival. In that race, Saratoga Springs finished 11^th overall. It seemed that it was not strong enough criteria. Kelsey Chmiel, the team’s top runner and one of the top runners in the country, finished 15^th in the regional race. She would not have run in Portland if the team had not. Chmiel finished second in the NXN Championship race.

What would be great is take the discussion and the politics out of this process. Taking out the committee and dissolving it and let the runners decide it. Add five teams to the trip to Portland. The top three teams from regional make it to Portland. End of discussion.

The choices for the Boys and Girls At-Large teams in 2018 will be tough on Saturday. It will be extremely tough for the Girls teams where six to seven battling for four spots.

2018 Boys

Top 35 Lists - 11/20/18

Here is the list of the Boys eligible at-large teams as of 11/20/2018. The list is based off the final three meets in the team’s season.

Here is a list of the Boys Eligible at large teams organized by strength of their NXR Regional race.

Mountain Vista CO – Its not a tough decision if you consider how well this team ran last Saturday in Arizona. They finished third but that was with the addition of Easton Allred who finished second overall in the race. the junior transferred from Palmer Ridge to Mountain Vista but was ruled by the Colorado High School Activities Association (CHSAA) that he would not be allowed to compete for his new school during the state season. The addition of Allred put Mountain Vista within 17 points of Auto-qualifier American Fork who has been ranked in the top 10 all season.

The Golden Eagles finished behind NXN qualifier Dakota Ridge in the regional race (third), and second in both the state region meet and the 5A State Meet. Mountain Vista did not compete in any “major” out of state meets during the season and without Allred. The addition of one of the top runners in the nation to this team gave Mountain Vista the top NXR team race of those at-large eligible teams. It is hard to ignore this team especially with Allred in their lineup.

Lewis & Clark WA – What could get this team in is that they defeated NXX Qualifier Central Valley WA in September in the Fort Steilacoom Invitational and the Mountain West Classic. The Tigers won their District race seven points again ahead of Central Valley.

It was different in the 4A State Meet when Central Valley finished second (96 points) while Lewis & Clark finished fourth (113 points). The Northwest Regional race top three teams were separated by only six points with Lewis & Clark just one point behind Central Valley. Their state race hurts their case, but the regional race could put this team in Portland.

York IL – The Dukes are close to Lewis & Clark with their race at the NXR Midwest Regional giving them a slight edge. York could be one of the hotter teams nationally after the regional races. Their top seven are all underclassmen. They raced together for the first time at the end of September in Peoria finishing third. They finished third in their regional and sectional state races before finishing fourth in the Illinois 3A State Meet. The Dukes ran their best race of the year in Terre Haute finishing third ahead of Neuqua Valley who finished ahead of them at state. York was within one point of Wheaton-Warrenville South, the Illinois 3A champion, in the raw regional score and finished seven points behind them. The tradition of York in this meet carries a lot in the consideration as an at-large team. The way that they have been running at the end of the year deserves more especially in one of the toughest cross-country states in the nation.

Neuqua Valley IL and Camas WA both finished fourth in their regional races. It is hard to imagine the committee selecting four Washington of Illinois schools to Portland. Both are deserving of the trip.

There will be a lot of chatter in trying to get Edina MN to the Nike Cross Nationals as the third team from the Heartland Regional. The Hornets did win the Minnesota 2A State Meet 11 points ahead of NXR heartland Champion Mounds View. This was after Edina finished second in their state section race behind Wayzata who finished fifth in the NXR Heartland Regional.

Edina did win the Roy Griak Invitational but that meet was not strong on the Boys side. Middleton WI, who was struggling entering Griak and finished eighth in that meet, finished second in the Heartland Regional.

One thing that will hurt Edina is that Minnesota has not been one of the strongest for the Boys teams in 2018. Mounds View is currently the top Minnesota school in the national rankings (31st). It may be tough to overcome that fact.

It could be tough for Flower Mound TX who finished third last Saturday at the NXR South Regional to make it as an at-large school. EL Paso Eastwood and Southlake Carroll finished ahead of the Jaguars last Saturday. In the Texas UIL 6A State Meet, Flower Mound also finished third behind the Woodlands and again Southlake Carroll.

The only argument that would hold is that they finished six points behind SL Carroll at NXR South and four points at state. But they never beat them during the season. Their last three races places Flower Mound fourth, but behind Lewis & Clark, York, and Neuqua Valley.

The three regional qualifying meets along with the California State Meet could make things interesting.

New York’s Regional has two of the top five teams in the nation in Fayetteville-Manlius and Burnt Hills. They are ahead of the rest of the other teams in the state meet by a wide-margin. No surprises in this meet has no third-place teams advancing.

The same applies in the Southeast Regional as defending national champion Loudoun Valley VA and Bolles FL, last year’s regional qualifying teams, again will be the big favorites to advance again. No surprises in this meet means no at-large teams coming out.

The Northeast Regional could make things interesting. Christian Brothers NJ and LaSalle Academy RI are ranked in the top ten nationally. A good race by Bishop Hendricken RI rebounding after a so-so race at the New England Championships could put them in position to get three teams out of this regional.

California has been strong all season and is a good bet to get an at-large team to Portland. Great Oak and Newbury Park look to be the favorites to make it out. Dana Hills, St. Francis Mountain View, and Claremont are among the teams that will challenge for a third and maybe fourth spot.

2018 Girls

Top 35 Lists-11/20/18

Here is the list of the Girls eligible at-large teams as of 11/20/2018. The list is based off the final three meets in the team’s season.

Here is a list of the Girls Eligible at large teams organized by strength of their NXR Regional race.

I think there are two teams that are solid picks for at-large selections. After that will be tough. This is one of the best 2018 Cross Country seasons nationally. There will be some teams that will not be able to race.

Boise ID and Downers Grove South IL are the two solid teams that should be making the Portland trip.

Boise ID – The resume is good for the Braves making them a solid pick to make it to the Nike Cross Nationals. They won the Bob Firman Invitational in September defeating top ranked Great Oak CA. The following week at the Desert Twilight Festival in Arizona, Boise won the Championship Race title finishing ahead of Southwest Regional third-place finisher Niwot CO. Their 5A State Meet win including getting four runners in the top 10. That race moved them into the top five nationally. Their NXR Northwest race was not the best, but their performance was still the second fastest at-large team time. They are good enough to make the Nike Cross Nationals trip.

Downers Grove South IL – The Mustangs have been a part of trio of Illinois girls’ teams that have been among the best in the nation this fall. South has finished third behind Naperville North and Yorkville in four meets this fall including a strong third-place finish at the NXR Midwest Regional where they were 44 points behind Yorkville but almost 100 points over the next closest team. Downers South was 40 points behind Yorkville in the state race.  

Their third-place finish at the Roy Griak Invitational (of course behind Naperville North and Yorkville) included finishing ahead of NXN qualifiers Wayzata MN and Edina MN. Their strength in that race along with how strong they ran in Illinois should get this team to the starting line in Portland. Remember, South was ahead of Yorkville by one point in early September finishing second at the First to the Finish Invitational behind Naperville North. It was early in the season and that may not be a factor for the selection committee. The resume is strong enough without for this team to get to Portland.

It gets tricky after those two teams. A ton will depend on what happens in the four meets that take place on Saturday.

Hellgate MT was only three points behind Boise in the NXR Northwest Regional race placing fourth overall. Their seventh-place finish at the Bob Firman Invitational could hurt their chances. Their two wins at the Mountain West Classic and the Montana 2A State Meet ahead of state power Bozeman could help. They could get in but will need to hope for no surprises on Saturday. That still might not be enough.

The chances are slim for Niwot CO after a strong season that included a third-place finish at the NXR Southwest Regional. The Cougars finished 31 points behind Boise ID at the Desert Twilight Festival at the end of September. Niwot’s 4A State Championship win ahead of NXN qualifier Battle Mountain CO is something to take notice ahead of them by 12 points. They finished five points behind Battle Mountain last Saturday. They are fifth among strongest regional at-large performances. Niwot will need a big margin between second and third in the New York Regional or the California State Meet merge to get one of the four at-large spots.

Their strong state meet win at the Minnesota 2A championships race by St. Michael Albertville gave this team hopes as they finished ahead of NXN qualifiers Wayzata and Edina in that meet. Finishing 57 points behind those two teams at the NXR Heartland Regional hurts their chances. Add in that they finished behind another at-large hopeful Downers Grove South IL at the Roy Griak Invitational makes it harder to see this team make it to Portland. Nevertheless, they still had a wonderful season.

Beavercreek OH could not compete in the NXR Midwest Regional on November 11. The Ohio State Meet was moved back one week to November 10 due to hazardous conditions to the course. Nike officials informed Beavercreek that they would be considered for an at-large bid. Their state win was impressive as well as their wins at the Centerville Under the Lights and at Nike Valley Twilight. Neither of those wins came against NXN qualifiers. It would be good to see this team go but it would not feel right to take a chance away from another team that ran in an NXR race. Saturday’s races will tell a lot of this team’s chances. Their state performance ranks fourth among the at-large teams. The right thing to do is to increase the teams on the starting line from 22 to 23 teams. Beavercreek would have been one of the top four teams in the Midwest Regional.

It is hard to see at-large teams coming out of the Southeast and Northeast Regional races on Saturday. The New York Regional has top 15 teams Saratoga Springs, defending national champion Fayetteville-Manlius, and Liverpool fighting for two automatic spots. A close third-place finish in this meet could get all three teams to Portland. The California State Meet merge should see Great Oak and Claremont making it back to Portland. Watch to see where the third-place team is in relation to point total to see if we have a third team coming out of California.