ILXCTF looks at the final weekend of NXR Regional Meets: At-large bids up for grabs

By Michael Newman

DyeStat.com TFX National Director

We have gone through two weekends of NXR Regional meets. 12 teams from the Boys and the Girls have punched their ticket to the Nike Cross Nationals in Portland on December 2. This weekend, we close the door on the teams that will be on the starting line at Glendoveer Golf Course.

Six teams will know after their race on Saturday if they will be part of the 22 team field at NXN. Four more teams in each gender will have to wait until Saturday to find out if they are chosen.

It is a tough call on the four teams that will find out if they will be racing next week. The number of teams to select for NXN all deserve to be on this list. We usually have 4-5 at large teams that separate themselves by the time we get to the call on Saturday night. This year those numbers have grown.

There are some things that we need to remember. Ratings during the season do not matter. In most cases, seasonal ratings are bias based on regional preferences. It is something that the selection committee is supposed to ignore.

What should be looked at is how a team has run coming down to the final three meets of the season. Are they running better than they did at the end of September or did they peak before their state meet or the NXR race. How many teams did a team considered for selection beat that are already auto-qualifiers for NXN. Mix that in with how their regional meet went, how close the team was to the second-place qualifier. A state meet championship for an at-large team should go a long way.

Let’s remember, this selection committee has a tough decision to make, perhaps tougher than previous years.

Here is a look at the Boys and Girls teams that are in the at-large pools for Selection Saturday night.

IL XC Speed Ratings NXR At-Large Analysis

Girls Teams

Two teams that finished third and fourth this past weekend are two certainties to advance to Portland. Mountain Vista CO bounced back after a so-so finish in their state meet where they finished fifth. The Golden Eagles finished third last Saturday behind national powerhouses Niwot CO and Air Academy CO. The strength of the Southwest Regional along with how well they ran puts them in Portland. Utah 6A champion Lone Peak ran shorthanded in the regional being without state champion and All-American Andie Aagard who had a minor injury and did not run. The Knights still placed fourth and will have to wait until Saturday night to find out if they punch their NXN ticket. Lone Peak without Aagard still should make it to nationals. Aagard in their lineup could have them in position to challenge for a top three finish.

The final two spots are totally up for grabs with five to six teams competing for a Portland trip. York IL was pushed all season by three other Illinois teams that pushed the Dukes win their second 3A state title in three seasons. They did not have their best race on November 11 when they finished third behind Prospect IL and Downers Grove North IL whom they defeated multiple times this fall. They won the high powered Palatine Meet of Champions that also included NXN Qualifier Assumption KY who finished fifth in the Palatine race. Barrington IL finished fourth behind York in Terre Haute and third in the state meet has an outside chance to make it to nationals. It is a number’s crunch with so many quality teams fighting for the four at-large places. If two additional schools are taken from the Southwest, it is highly unlikely that two more teams will come from the Midwest.

Lucas Lovejoy TX is the one team that could challenge York for one of the four spots. Just like York, they did not have their best race of the season finishing third last Saturday at the South Regional. They did win the Class 5A state title two weeks before. That classification was not as strong as Class 6A where top two South Regional finishers Flower Mound TX and Southlake Carroll TX are located. Lucas Lovejoy picked up a big win at the Chile Pepper XC Festival on September 30. The Leopards won by 85 points ahead of Olathe West KS who finished second at the NXR Heartland Regional more than a week ago.

Cardinal Gibbons NC would have been a team to consider but finished fourth last Sunday at the Southeast Regional. Webb School TN finished third in that race. Their numbers and resume are not strong enough to get an-at large. Same argument as the Midwest Regional with Barrington IL.

A number of teams will be holding their breath on Saturday with the final three qualifying meets taking place. It is doubtful we will see at-large teams coming out of the New York and Northeast Regionals. All eyes will be on the CIF California State Meet at Woodward Park. There is a scenario where we could see two more at-large California teams along with the two auto-qualifiers make the short trip north to Portland. A surprise team is Corono Santiago CA who ran a great race at the California Southern Section and put the Sharks in position for the Division I title. JSerra Catholic, Buchanan CA, and Ventura CA are the three teams that I would watch for in the five divisional state races. If all of these teams are among the top four teams when the power merge is released, the probability grows that all four teams could advance. If not, then I could see just three teams advance out of California.

Saratoga Springs NY and Bethlehem Central NY should be the top two teams coming out of New York Regional. The two teams in their last two meets have finished 1-2 in the Section 2 Championship and last week in the NY Federation Championships. East Aurora NY will be the closest to these two teams but will need to squeeze into the top two to head across the country to Portland.

Union Catholic NJ is the big favorite in the Northeast Region race. Champlain Valley Union VT and Oyster River NH who finished 1-2 at the New England Championships will challenge for the second spot. North Alleghany PA could surprise finishing in the top two auto-qualifier places.

Boys Teams

There is not a lock on any of the four at-large Boys teams like there seems to be with the Girls teams heading into this weekend. There is a separation after the seventh of the twelve teams that are in the at-large status. Two of the three meets this weekend will make this selection even tougher. I don’t see an at-large team coming from Heartland or the Southeast Regionals. That gives you an idea where we have narrowed down to teamwise.

There are two ways to look at the third and fourth place finishing teams in the Southwest Regional. Riverton UT ran their best race of the year last Saturday finishing third with 153 points. They were just 32 points behind NXN qualifier Herriman UT. Their resume includes finishing fourth in the Class 6A State Meet behind American Fork, Herriman, and Lone Peak who finished eighth in the regional race. The Silverwolves did not finish ahead of any NXN qualifying teams this fall.

Niwot CO came into the Southwest Regional after winning the Colorado Class 4A State Meet. A big drawback is that they finished 67 points behind Riverton UT. It was not because that the Cougars had a bad race. They were consistent In their final three races of the season. It was the fact that Riverton just ran well in that race. There has not been a fourth-place team in a region that has been chosen over a third-place team. Riverton is positioned #7 out of the 12 teams if you are considering their final three races. They had the best race out of all 12 regional teams. Niwot overall is #2 in the last three races, but the 67 point margin behind Riverton hurts them. A lot of deliberations on these two teams. Does Riverton qualify alone or does Niwot’s season push both teams to Portland?

Plainfield South IL has run better in their last three races improving in every race. They have been close to crosstown rival Plainfield North finishing nine points behind North in the state sectional race and state race followed by finishing just one point behind in the Midwest Regional to finish third. South did win their conference meet ahead of North by just two points. Carmel IN did not run their best race after two great races winning their state regional meet then winning the state meet. The fourth-place finish by the Greyhounds hurts their national chances.

Vandergrift TX came off a great 6A State race finishing second behind NXR South winner Southlake Carroll. The Vipers finished third 22 points out of second-place. Their big race of the year was easily winning the Rated Division at the Woodbridge XC Classic in September. Franklin OR finished third at the Northwest Regional and could be a team that makes the short trip to Glendoveer Country Club. The Lightning won the Oregon State 6A team title which will help in deliberations. 

The Northeast Regional this Saturday could decide one of these four at-large spots. Christian Brothers NJ and Westfield NJ finished 1-2 last week at the New Jersey Meet of Champions. Both could repeat that finish in this regional. Ridgefield CT and possibly Brookline MA could put themselves in the qualifying discussion by finishing third.

We could see San Clemente CA, Dana Hills CA, and Great Oaks CA among the top three teams to advance to the NXN Nationals next Saturday after strong finishes in their state meet. The power merge combining the results of the five divisional races will tell us who will be eligible to run in Portland.

Saratoga Springs NY and Monroe-Woodbury NY were even after five runners (58 points) two weeks ago at the New York State Meet. M-W had the advantage once they merged all four Class races. Both are the teams that should finish 1-2 in the New York Regional.