By Michael Newman

[email protected]

The Illinois Girls teams have been among the nationally ranked squad during the regular season. It is too bad that we will not get to see Illinois 3A runner-up Yorkville compete in this meet. They deserved to be here. We still have 3A champion Naperville North and 3A third place Minooka that are ready to toe the line. This atmosphere is not new to the Lady Huskies as they have made repeat trips to Portland. I have looked to see where some have ranked this team. Naperville North has risen to the occasion when the money is on the line this year. I expect nothing less on Saturday. Minooka could be a surprise in this meet especially with their firepower up front. They could be among the top three teams if they can have the runners up front and their split lowered on five to the 80 second range.

Two Illinois girls’ individual runners will also toe the line Saturday morning at Portland’s Glendoveer Golf Course. 3A state champion Katelynne Hart (Glenbard West IL) is only a freshman but has run like an experienced veteran this fall. It would not surprise me if she is among the top runners in this race. 1A four time XC champion Anna Sophia Keller (St. Anthony HS, Effingham) qualified for this race for the third time and is making her second appearance in this meet. She remembers how she ran on this course two years ago. That experience could pay off in a great race for one of the best high school runners that Illinois has seen.

Here is a look of how I see it this Saturday morning.

Teams

1 - Fayetteville – Manlius NY

Preview – This New York powerhouse is the team to watch on Saturday having won 9 of the last 10 NXN titles. The Hornets were dominating again during the regular season only scoring 35 points to win the Class A State Championship. The 5 runner spread has been between 47 and 54 seconds their past 3 meets. Freshmen Claire Waters and Phoebe White have been the team’s top runners heading to Portland. With so many great individual runners in this race, both runners could score single digit points. I do not know if there is a key to beat this team. This program has been in this situation so many times that they approach Portland as just another meet. One thing that I would watch is if one of the top five has an off race. The gap between fifth runner Sophie Ryan and sixth runner Reilly Madsen was 60 seconds at last week’s regional meet. That could open the door for another team to jump in to the top spot. Watch for a split on 5 of near 48 seconds. That will be enough to capture the national title. The Hornets could be the only team in double digits when the final scores are announced.

2- Temecula Great Oak CA

Preview – The California D1 champions are looking strong heading into this weekend’s meet. I am sure there is a little thought of the third place finish from a year ago and the desire to move up on the podium. The Wolfpack is the team with the pack in this meet. Their split on 5 at state last week was 36 seconds. The week before it was only 23 seconds in their section final. This team is deep with all of their top 5 runners having been the #1 runner in a meet this season. Last week, it was Nicole Rice’s turn to lead the squad. This team needs to have their first two runners in before Fayetteville-Manlius gets their third runner across the line. Then they will need to get their next 3 runners in before Manlius has 4 finishing. That type of race with a 30 second or better split on the scoring 5 could get Great Oak the national championship.

3 - Davis CA

Preview – The Blue Devils did not run their best race of the year three weeks ago in cruising to the section title. They did run their best race of the year last week in finishing second to Great Oak in the D1 State finals. This pattern is similar to last season when they finished second at state and followed that up with a surprising second in Portland. The talent is there to get back on the podium. Olivia O’Keefe and Sofia Castiglioni have traded off the top spot towards the end of the season. Both could place in the top 15 team places. What could be a problem for this team is the gap between the first two runners and then the three other scorers. The gap was 27 seconds in last week’s state race. That needs to come down to 20 seconds on Saturday. A split of 45 seconds or under will be necessary in order for this team to be among the top three teams in this meet.

4 - Bozeman MT

Preview – Bozeman did not run the high profile meets that some of the top teams did this season but have the quality up front to be a surprise possibly among the first three teams. Their win at the Northwest Region meet was highlighted by having Camila Noe leading their first 3 runners in within 24 seconds of each other with Piper Meuwissen and Kenenni Wiegand within 10 seconds of each other as the second and third runners. Their area of concern is the gap between the top three and the next two. There was a minute gap in their regional race. That will need to come down 20 seconds this week if this team has dreams of getting on the podium. The split at state without Meuwissen was 83 seconds. It was 95 seconds in the regional race. A split on 5 of under 77 seconds with Noe among the first 20 team runners could get this team in the hunt for the top three.

5 - Carmel IN

Preview – This team was ranked among the top three nationally after they took the first 5 spots in their semi-state race. They easily won the Indiana State even with their top runner Sarah Leinheiser as their fifth scorer. Leinheiser did not finish at the Midwest Region race due to an injury. She ran last Saturday at Foot Locker Midwest but used the race as a rust buster to gear up for this weekend. Christina Geisler qualified for Foot Locker Nationals last Saturday and will lead the team up front with Maddie Dalton. They won the Midwest Region without Leinheiser but with a strong pack. The first 4 runners were only separated by 18 seconds but the overall spread was 74 seconds. If Leinheiser is back in the lineup and can run similar to the way she did in her state race, this team could threaten for a top three finish. If Leinheiser is with Dalton and Geisler, the Greyhounds could challenge for the national championship.

6 - Minooka IL

Preview – Minooka should be the highest finishing “at-large” team in this race. The chances for finishing in the top five are strong. Mackenzie Callahan, Emily Shelton, and Ashley Tutt give the team a strong trio towards the front. Tutt was sick in her last two races but is back at 100% health. She could be a key to Indians’ success having the three within 10 seconds of each other and among the top 20 team scorers. Vivian Van Eck has improved during the season and has been running closer to the front three at the end of the year. The sophomore will need to be within 18 to 20 seconds in this race. Minooka’s split on their top 5 has averaged near 110 seconds at the end of the year. A split on the 5 scorers of 85 seconds or faster could put this team in trophy territory.

7 - Keller TX

Preview – This is a team that is capable of a top five finish if it can duplicate their efforts in their last two races. Their second place finish in the South Regional two weeks ago was their best of the year so far as they finished second. Junior Abby Santoro has been their top runner all season and could be among the top 20 team scorers in this race. Julia Black and Isabel Van Camp will need to be within 20 seconds of her on Saturday in order for this team to be near the top five. The top five split has been in the 80’s in the last three races. That needs to lower to under 75 seconds for this team to move up in the standings.

8 - Naperville North IL

Preview – The Huskies did not run their best race of the year at the Midwest Regional but still finished second to make a repeat trip back to Portland. This team is better than people think. NXN qualifier Edina MN defeated them twice in September but this team is different than two months ago. The Illinois 3A state champs have a strong front three in Sarah Schmitt, Hannah Ricci, and Alex Morris. Schmitt is capable of finishing among the top 20 team runners. Ricci and Morris will need to stay within 12 seconds of Schmitt. Their scoring spread at state was 57 seconds. It has been as low as 52 seconds at their conference meet.  Clare Hamilton has been the team’s fourth runner and could be a key in this race if she can stay within 21 seconds of Morris. That and a 5 runner split under 50 seconds could get this team near the top 5.

9 - Edina MN

Preview – The Minnesota AA State Champs ran their best race of the year in winning the Heartland Regionals three weeks ago. They will need to equal or better that effort to get among the top 5 teams in this meet. The Hornets rely on good pack running led by Emily Kompelien and Amanda Mosborg who have finished side by side in the last 2 races. Morgan Richter and Maria Rickman were within 18 seconds of the front two in the region meet. They will need that kind of race on Saturday to help their squad. The team has the tendency to have a split of under 45 seconds. That could help them finish up in the standings. The pack needs to move up around 10 seconds per runner if they want to be close to the top five teams.

10 - Willmar MN

Preview – The Cardinals have been within 13 and 6 points of Edina in their last 2 races. They will look to finish ahead of their Minnesota rivals on Saturday.  Jenna Hanson has been the team’s top runner and could be among the top 30 team runners in this race. Sophie Schmitz and Kayla Rudie have traded off the final 2 spots in last 2 meets. Schmitz was within 10 seconds of Hanson at the regional race. Rudie being that close as well could mean good things for this team. The split on the scorers will need to be 32 to 36 seconds of one another. The pack moving up on an average of 8 seconds will also be a big help.

11 - Phoenix Desert Vista AZ

Preview – It is hard to put a finger on this team. The Thunder looked strong early in the year winning powerhouse meets like the Woodridge Invitational and the George Fox Invitational in October. They cruised to the D1 state title with only a 9 second split on their top 5. Their regional race was not the best of their season finishing second making the trip to Portland but with a team speed ranking under 600 (596.67). Emily Crail and Baylee Jones were within 9 seconds of each other in their regional race. That will need to be the same on Saturday. The key is getting their third through fifth runners closer together. The group was within 6 seconds of each other two weeks ago but 21 seconds behind Jones. A split of 28 seconds or under could put this team in the top 5 as long as they can improve their team time by 10 seconds a runner.

12 - Southlake Carroll TX

Preview – The Dragons bounced back from a so-so state performance to win the South Regional title 2 weeks ago. A same type of effort will be needed to get this team into the top ten. What hurt Carroll at state was that their normal front runner Catherine Tracht was the team’s seventh runner in that race. She was the team leader in the region race with Gillian Mortimer within 6 seconds of her. Both could be in the first 30 team scorers in this meet. The key is keeping the team’s scoring spread under 50 seconds. The team has the big meet experience finishing third to Woodbridge and second at Chile Pepper. A good race by Carroll could get this team closer to the top 5 than people think.

13 - Blacksburg VA

Preview – The NXR Southeast Region champs have been consistent down the stretch and will look for another good team effort to get them into the top ten. Aileen Edwards and Samantha Marin have traded off the top spot all year. The two were within a second of each other last week. The Bruins also ran a season’s best 35 second five runner split last week. They will need to duplicate that in order to finish among the top ten.

14 - Burke Lake Braddock VA

Preview – The Virginia 6A champs got within 17 points of Blacksburg to finish second last week at the Southeast Region. Kate Murphy should be among the top 5 individuals overall guarantying the Bruins low numbers up front. The split from Murphy to the rest of the pack led by Samantha Schwers has been in the 80 second range most of the year. The key will be keeping the split on the next 4 scorers under 20 seconds to guarantee a top ten finish.

15 - Portland Sunset OR

Preview – The second “at-large” team in this field after finishing third at the Northwest Region. Sophomore Ember Stratton should guarantee her team some low numbers. She could be in the top 5 team scorers in this race. The gap between Stratton and Kelly Makin was at 53 seconds in the regional race when she was within 24 seconds in their state race. A split near 40 seconds between Stratton and the group would help on Saturday. A split near or under 2 minutes on the top 5 could get the team near the top ten.

16 - Palos Verdes CA

Preview – The third “at-large” team after winning the California D3 State title and finishing third in the power merge. The team relies on a tight 5 runner pack led by Mazzy Genovese and Grace Catena. They were within 10 seconds of each other last week at state. The Sea Kings had a 5 runner split of only 27 seconds in the state race. The pack needs to move up a little with the same split. That could result in this team finishing near the top ten.

17 - Clifton Park Shenendehowa NY

Preview – Shenendehowa did not make it to the New York State Meet after finishing second by only three points in their state section race. They rebounded by finishing second in the NY Federations race and then finishing second last week in the New York Region race ahead of higher ranked North Rockland who defeated them at Feds. A race similar to last week could get them near the top ten. The team has a strong top four led by Hannah Reale that could finish among the top 25 team runners. The split on the first four was only 25 seconds in the region race. That alone could get them near the top 5. A key for the team is getting their top 5 split near 95 seconds. It was 120 seconds last week.

18 - Bend Summit OR

Preview – The Storm finished second in the Northwest Region after winning the Oregon 5A state championship. Olivia Brooks, who won her third straight individual state XC title a month ago, should be among the top 20 team scorers in this race. Taylor Vandenhorn leads the pack behind brooks. The split on that group has been near 40 to 45 seconds. If the group can stay within 45 seconds of Brooks with the overall split near 84 seconds, this team could finish among the top 15.

19 - Highlands Ranch Mountain Vista CO

Preview – After finishing second behind Bloomfield at the state’s 5A state meet, the Golden Eagles came back to win the Southwest Region title two weeks ago. Freshmen Sarah O’Sullivan and Jenna Fitzsimmons have been the top runners for the team most of the season. Only 5 seconds separated the two in the regional race. Caroline Eck was within 4 seconds of Fitzsimmons in the state race and 19 seconds behind O’Sullivan at the NXR race. 3 runners within 12 seconds of each other could be a plus for the team. The 5 runner split of 56 seconds was good 2 weeks ago. If the group up on Saturday, this team does have the potential to finish in the top 15.

20 - Broomfield CO

Preview – This is a team that could finish higher than projected. The Colorado 5A state champs finished third in the Southwest Region race basically because Ivy Gonzales, who had been one of the front runners in 2016, finished as the team’s fifth runner. Do not expect that to happen this weekend. Madison Mooney could be up front with Gonzales. The team only had a 24 second split in the regional race. It could go up to 35 to 40 seconds if Gonzales / Mooney are leading them. It could get them near the top 15 as well.

21 - Annandale North Hunterdon NJ

Preview – The Northeast Region champions will look for a top 15 finish in this race. Sisters Elena and Anna DiMarcello have been the top runners for the team the last 3 meets. Along with third runner Angela Kearsley, the three could be within 28 to 32 seconds of each other. A split on their 5 scorers of 60 seconds or better could get them close to the top 15 teams.

22 - Amherst Souhegan NH

Preview – Madeline Hunt should be the top runner on this squad that will be making their first NXR national appearance. The split on their top 5 was 92 seconds in their regional race. That will need to dip under 80 seconds in order for this team to finish in the top 20.

Individuals

It is hard to see anyone defeating Brie Oakley (Grandview CO) in this race. The senior has been undefeated all season including a convincing win over Allie Schadler (Rio Rico AZ) in the Southwest Reginal two weeks ago.

Kelsey Chmiel (Saratoga Springs NY) has been tough all season including last week’s win at the New York Regional. Heartland Regional Champion Molly Born (Shawnee Mission Northwest KS), Northwest Regional Champion Annie Hill (Glacier MT), and Southeast Champion Kate Murphy (Lake Braddock VA) along with New York runners Jessica Lawson (Corning NY) and Katherine Lee (Shoreham Wading River NY) are all runners that we will see in the front pack.

One runner that I would keep an eye on is Katelynne Hart (Glenbard West IL). She set the freshman course record at Detweiller Park a month ago on her way to winning the Illinois 3A State championship almost a month ago. She is a gamer that rises to the situation of the race. It would not surprise me to see her towards the front as well.