Behind The Rankings - October 3, 2019

By Michael Newman

Dyestat TFX National Director on Athletic.Net

[email protected]

What have we learned in the first month of the 2019 season? There is still over a month to go in the Illinois season. On the national scene, we have two months until we get to the Nike Cross Nationals in December.

Let’s look what has happened in the national scene heading into this weekend as well as in each classification in Illinois.

National Rankings 10/3/2019 | Illinois Rankings Page 10/1/2019

National Girls

Most of the nation figured that defending NXN Champion Bend Summit OR would be the team to beat and they still are. This team is slowly building towards their peak showing that in a win at the Nike Portland XC Invitational ahead of an improving Boise ID team.

Some called the win by Cherry Creek CO at the Roy Griak Invitational was an upset over Naperville North IL. It was far from that. Cherry Creek was ranked ahead of Naperville North in the ILXCTF.com rankings plus Naperville North did not have one of their top runners in Campbell Petersen. Creek had a 55 second split on their second through fifth runners behind individual race winner Riley Stewart. The Colorado school jumped to the top of the national list this week.

One of the strongest teams so far this year has been Beavercreek OH. The Ohio D1 champs are still smarting from not being able to run in the Nike Midwest Regionals after their state meet was moved back one week. Their top four could be one of the best quartets in the nation led by Taylor Ewert and Savannah Roark. Their split from the top four to their fifth runner started the year close to two minutes. That split has been cut down to 90 seconds. If they get that time to within 60 seconds, this team could be tough to beat. This team will be showcased this Saturday night at the Nike Valley Twilight Meet in Terre Haute, Indiana.

How tough are Colorado Girls teams this fall? Three schools found their way into the top 10. We have already talked about Cherry Creek. Niwot CO, who finished fifth last year at Nike Cross Nationals as an at-large team, showed that with a convincing win at the Desert Twilight Classic. They moved up in the final half of the race behind the third-place finish from Samrawit Dishon. This team will be tough in the post season. Lucca Fulkerson, who ran last year at Lafayette Dawson CO, transferred to Niwot and is not eligible to run for Niwot during the state season. She ran 17:40 to finish second in the open race. She will be a factor for this team in the regional race and at NXN.

The Southwest Regional, as of now, is the toughest of the nine regionals with four schools ranked nationally in the top 10. The Midwest Regional is tough again with nine schools are ranked in the top 25 with two of the schools from Michigan. Hopefully, both East Grand Rapids and Ann Arbor Pioneer get to run in November in Terre Haute. The archaic rules from the MHSAA prohibit Michigan teams to compete in post-season meets.

National Boys

As it looks now, there are six solid teams in the front and then a separation before the next 40+ schools. Newbury Park CA still remains the top Boys national team after an overwhelming performance at the Woodbridge XC Classic two weeks ago led by the individual win from Nico Young. We get to see the Panthers in action this weekend at the Clovis Invitational.

A highly anticipated match-up this weekend will occur this weekend in the Great American C Classic in North Carolina between the next two schools on the list Loudoun Valley VA and Great Oak CA. We have not seen the two-time defending champion with a full lineup this season. Loudoun Valley will be out to make a statement in this week. Great Oak ran strong at Woodbridge finishing second behind Newbury Park. This could be a bounce-back race if you want to call it that for Great Oak. The Wolfpack only had a 20 second split on their top five in that meet led by Christian Simone.

Flower Mound TX has been a surprise in the top five this year. Impressive wins at the Marcus I Invitational, the MileSplit TX Invitational, and then last week at the McNeil Invitational have put them into this position. Flower Mound won by over 200-points led by the individual win from Jarret Kirk with only a 49 second split on their top five runners. They host an invitational on Saturday.

St. Charles East IL is running a huge chip on their shoulder after finishing a disappointing fifth in the Illinois Class 3A State Meet last November. The Saints had an impressive performance two weeks ago at the Richard Spring Invitational against the then top six teams in the state along with Claremont CA. They won led by a 14:29 3-mile from Bob Liking and a 34 second split on their top five with all of them under 15:03. They will face IL #2 Sandburg again this Saturday at the Peoria Invitational at Detweiller Park.

Hard to speculate where the at-large teams will come from in the nine NXR regionals. The Southwest and Midwest Regionals again to be the deepest.

ILLINOIS SCHOOLS

Class 3A Boys

As we said above, St. Charles East made a statement in their Peoria win two weeks ago. Their road to state becomes easier after their conference race against Wheaton-Warrenville South and then it looks like a smooth ride to Detweiller with Waubonsie Valley their chief competition in their own sectional.

After St. Charles East and Sandburg, it appears to be wide-open. I don’t think we have seen the best race of the year from Wheaton-Warrenville South, New Trier, and York as we head into October. I know the three coaches from those schools like it that way. Wheaton-Warrenville South has great leadership with Billy Hauenstein leading them. Their split on five will need to come down to challenge St. Charles East at the DuKane Conference Championships on October 19.

New Trier was impressive in their three-point win over Hersey last week at Palatine. The Trevians are deep with 11 runners capable of running in their top seven without missing a beat.

York’s breakout race could be this Saturday at the Nike Twilight Valley Invitational where they will be one of the team favorites. Their lineup should be intact with the return of last year’s top runner for the squad Ethan Kern.

Waubonsie Valley has been the surprise team in this classification so far this season behind some solid pack running and a good sophomore squad waiting to get into the top seven come state series time.

Class 3A Girls

It is still the “Big-3” schools in this classification as of now. When we get to the Naperville Twilight Meet on October 9, that may all change.

Downers Grove South is ranked at the top of Class 3A, but it is close between them and Naperville North. Both teams have improved in every race so far this season. Downers Grove South was impressive in their third-place finish behind top 20 finishes from Brenna Cohoon and Erin Reidy. It is possible they could get their 3-4-5 runners closer to Reidy. When that happens, this team becomes tough to beat.

The same applies to Naperville North. We have not seen them with Campbell Petersen in their lineup yet this season. Petersen has been recovering from a minor foot injury but appears ready to go. Maggie Gamboa has stepped up as the team’s top runner and one of the elite runners in the state. The two schools face off in Naperville next week where the margin of winning for either of the schools could come down to single digits.

We will get a better idea of Yorkville in the next week as they face Beavercreek OH on Saturday in Indiana and then next week in Naperville. The team has looked good early on led by Helena Kleronomos with strong runs at Peoria and last week in Sterling. Batavia is now up and coming especially with Katrina Schlenker back. They had a strong run in Minnesota with three runners in the top 27. Their gap between three and four needs to close down.

Glenbard West has been a surprise this year with the emergence of sophomores Delaney Engel and Audrey Allman behind state champion Katelynne Hart. Watch, just like Batavia, for their fourth and fifth runners closing the gap on the two sophomores.

Barrington has been strong with a solid top three in Molly FitzPatrick, Alyssa Norris, and Allison Drage. Hinsdale Central has a solid front four led by Emma Watcke and McKenna Revord. Getting their fifth runner closer will be a thing to keep an eye on. York has been a surprise winning last week at Palatine with only a six second top five split.

Class 2A Boys

It is hard to imagine anyone else challenging Kaneland at this time. The Knights destroyed the competition at First to the Finish in September behind Andrew Adams and Daniel Occhipinti among the top five runners. Those low numbers from their top two runners give this team a clear advantage.

Honestly, it is so up for grabs between the next 10 (?) schools. St. Ignatius held some of their sophomore runners down last week at Palatine. When they are moved up, that could make the Wolfpack a team to challenge for the top three schools. Marmion Academy looked good in finishing second at First to the Finish Invitational. Dixon has the talent to challenge for one of the top three spots. Benet Academy does not have the front runner that could finish in the top 15. They do have a tight pack that could challenge for a trophy. Benet also has an easy road to state assigned to the ultra-easy Thornridge Sectional.

Class 2A Girls

Maybe a surprise in this classification is from Belvidere North who started the season as the top ranked school. They’ve had a bumpy start so far in which the Blue Thunder has dropped to #11. Their experience in big meets should drive them back to the top at the time of the state series.

Benet Academy is the favorite heading into October running a 20 second split last week easily winning at Naperville. Vernon Hills was supposed to be rebuilding this season. The Cougars have three freshmen in their top five led by Rose Sheridan that have challenged some of the top 3A schools this fall.

Latin School has been intriguing so far this season especially without Marianne Mihas out of their lineup. Mihas ran a tempo effort Wednesday at Lake Forest. Once she gets to full steam along side Ava Parekh, the Romans could be challenging for the #1 spot in this classification.

Class 1A Boys

Stanford Olympia started out the season strong with impressive wins at Saber Corn at St. Thomas More and then winning easily at First to the Finish Invitational.

Things got interesting at Tuesday’s El Paso-Gridley Invitational on the Furrow Farm “Beast” Course. The course is the toughest in the state with three creek crossings as well as some tough hills especially at the finish. Clifton Central, who finished fourth behind Olympia at St. Thomas More, seems to be coming on strong after a good run at the Woodbridge XC Classic in California. The defending 1A State champions left EPG with a one point win 39-40 ahead of Olympia. It makes things interesting in this classification over the next month.

Harvest Christian Academy is a team to keep an eye on as they should enter the Oregon Sectional Complex as the favorite. Led Matthew Olech, the Lions have a strong front three but will need to get their pack closer together to challenge for a trophy.

Monticello has been without one of their top runners Luke Sokolowski since their first meet of the season at St.. Thomas More. Josh Baysore has stepped into the top spot. A healthy Sokolowski and Morgan Dixon, who has missed their past two meets, make the Sages a trophy contender. Urbana University is in position to challenge for the top three led by Henry Kraatz and Aryan Lalwani. Chicago area schools Latin School and Northridge Prep have moved into the top 10 and could be surprises when we get to the state series.

Class 1A Girls

How good is Winnebago? We saw how well they ran at Peoria in September. They are one of the seven top Girls schools regardless of classification in this state. The key for the Indians is to stay healthy on their way to the state meet. Right now, it is hard to see a school challenging this team.

Is it a battle for the next two trophies behind Winnebago? Any thing could happen as we well know. Monticello, Rock Falls, Tolono Unity, and Normal University are all within seconds of each other. We will see some flip-flopping in the rankings over the next three weeks.

Rosary, led by Lianna Surtz, have the talent to get into the top three. The same holds true in the top five with IC Catholic Prep and Eureka who have the talent in the front to challenge.