NXN At-Large selections could be the toughest decisions we’ve seen in the past 10 years

By Michael Newman

The one difference that we have seen this season with the NXR Region meets is that all of them happened before Thanksgiving letting runners compete the Saturday after in three Foot Locker Regional Meets if they choose to.

It also gave a chance for fans, runners, coaches, and the Nile At-Large Selection committee a better chance to see what might happen this Saturday.

The fact is this could be one of the tightest years where the committee will need to debate to decide which four schools are worthy of getting one of the four at-large spots for a spot on the starting line for the Nike Cross Nationals set to be run on December 7.

There are 16 club teams that have already punched their tickets to run at Glendoveer Golf Course for each gender. Two more club teams will get an automatic bid in two spots for California coming from their state meet this Saturday at Fresno’s Woodard Park.

There will be several things that will be considered. One of them is not nationals rankings from various running websites due to biases that come from them. How many NXN Qualifying teams did any of the at-large teams finish ahead of this fall? That may not come into play in deciding who heads to Portland.

Here are a look at each of the two at-large genders starting with the Boys.

Boys

There should be a certainty that American Fork UT should be an obvious choice as an at-large team making it to Portland on December 7. The Caveman finished second in last year’s NXN race and primed to make another run to the podium. American Fork finished second behind Herriman UT in that race last year and have finished second in the Utah 6A race. Their third-place finish Saturday in the Southwest Regional makes them wait a week until they find out officially this Saturday. American Fork should be preparing for that NXN ranked. They are among the top three Boys teams in the nation.

There should be a third team from the South Region that should make the trip to the left coast to race at Glendoveer Golf Course. Austin Vandergrift TX did not run their best race last Saturday finished third and 20 points behind automatic qualifier Bridgeland TX. The places changed at the beginning of the month in the UIL 6A state race when Vandergrift finished 31 points ahead of Bridgeland and just four points behind state and region champion Southlake Carroll. The 6A state race from Vandergrift could put them into one of those four at-large spots. The Vipers are among the top 10 teams that have already qualified.

It gets very tough to figure the final two spots. Plainfield North IL is one of six teams that should be one of the teams considered out of this group. The Tigers faced Midwest and Class 3A State Champion Downers Grove North four times this season including finishing second behind in both the state and region meets. They finished five points behind in an early season invitational and 10 points behind at Naperville Twilight in October. Their state race was better than at Terre Haute. Aidan Connors, their third runner, was sick but still ran. He finished 29 seconds behind their second runner Thomas Czerwinski in the region. The two runners were separated by 12 seconds in the state race. Plainfield North finished 15 points behind Rockhurst MO in the region race. That outcome could have been much closer moving Connors from 90th to a finish in the top 45.

Ridgeland CT has run strong coming down the stretch winning the Connecticut Open Championships and New England Championships before finishing third last Saturday at the Northeast Region Championships. Ridgeland’s big race came at the beginning of October when they finished sixth in the championship race at the Great American XC Festival. They were within 119 points behind team winner and Southeast Region champ Belen Jesuit Prep FL in that race. The Tigers were within 12 points of State College PA last Saturday.

It might be hard to take four schools from the South Region. A team that will be considered is Jesuit of New Orleans LA who finished fourth on Saturday. The Bluejays were dominant last Monday in winning the Louisiana D1 title. They were 40 points behind Vandergrift TX in South Regional. They did finish third at the Great American XC Festival ahead of Ridgeland Ct. Those two schools along with Plainfield North IL are separated by seconds after the regional races.

Three more schools will also be considered.

Taylorsville UT had a breakthrough season on the national stage winning the Utah Class 5A State title at the end of October. They finished fourth in the Southwest Region behind three top five national teams and 101 points out of third place. The Warriors finished second in the elite race behind Herriman UT at the Bob Firman Invitational at the end of September. Taylorsville did finish ahead of possible NXN teams Rocky Mountain ID and Great Oak UT. They did have the second-best statistical race out of all at large region teams.

A scenario that should be watched is from the Northwest Region with third and fourth place finishers Rocky Mountain ID and Crater OR. The Oregon 5A State Champions were figured to be among the top teams in that region. Their second runner Josiah Tostenson had the flu coming into the meet but still ran ending up as the team’s seventh runner, Individual region champion Tayvon Kitchen finished 102 seconds ahead of Tostenson in the region race. The two runners were separated by 44 seconds in the state race. Tostenson had finished ahead of Kitchen a few times this season including the Clovis Invitational. Crater is statistically ahead of Plainfield North IL in the past two races.

The problem is that they finished fourth. The selection committee will not take a fourth-place team to nationals over a team that finished ahead of them in the region case. Rocky Mountain was two points ahead of Crater and 20 points behind Jesuit OR. The Grizzlies finished 11 points behind region winners Coeur d'Alene in the Idaho 6A State Meet. The two teams were separated by 85 points in the region. They have not finished ahead of any NXN teams in invitationals this year. The question is if Rocky Mountain is strong enough to run in this meet or are they pushed to NXN by a good Crater team, There are too many good teams to select from. Rocky Mountain is the seventh best out of all the at=large teams heading into this weekend.

We must look at the California schools that will be considered after they run in their state meet on Saturday. Beckman CA looked strong in winning the D1 division at the Southern Sectional race last weekend. Carmichael Jesuit looks to be the strong team in D2 and will be the favorite in that race after a strong race two weeks ago in the San Joaquin Sectional. Good races get them as auto qualifiers out of California. South Section teams Great Oak, Oaks Christian, and Mira Costa are among the teams that will challenge for at-large spots. This could be a year that we don’t see a Boys at-large team advance to race next week in Portland.

Girls

The Southwest Section proved how tough it was in 2023 when this region swept the first four places and were swept by teams from Colorado and Utah.

Fossil Ridge CO finished third in their past two meets behind Colorado power schools Mountain Vista and Air Academy. The SaberCats finished 27 points behind Air Academy in the region race. They were separated by seven points in the Colorado 6A State Meet. Lone Peak UT made it to NXN last year finishing fourth and would like to make it back to better their finish. The Knights finished four points behind Fossil Ridge in the region race after scoring 29 points to win the Utah 6A State title. The fact that they are the top two teams in at-large statistically and have been dominant in their invitational meets should make them near locks to make it to Glendoveer Golf Couse in about two weeks.

There are too many good schools that will not make it to Portland but that’s the way it is. There are 4-5 schools that could punch their ticket to Oregon.

Webb School of Knoxville TN ran a great race at the Southeast Region finishing third just one point behind Brentwood TN in that race. Both Tennessee schools were state champions with Webb winning the DII-AA title. The Spartans finished third at the Great American Festival at the beginning of October and two weeks earlier winning the Trinity/Valkyre Invitational. West Springfield VA finished six points behind Webb and seven points behind Brentwood. West Springfield tied with James Robinson for the Virgina 6A title with James Robinson the edge on the sixth-runner tiebreak.

Carmel IN were the stet champions in Indiana and ran a strong region race finishing three points behind second place Romeo MI. The Greyhounds finished 16 points ahead of Concordia Lutheran IN in their state race. The two were separated by 18 points in the region race.

The California Girls teams are ultra tough, and we could see so many scenarios evolve after their state meet on Saturday where two at-large teams could be chosen. Buchanan and Trabuco Hills are among the top five teams in the nation in the last rankings released by Dyestat.com. Buchanan finished eighth in last year’s NXN race and have been tough this season. The Bears scored only 20 points in their win in the Central Section D1 race placing six runners in the top eight. Trabuco Hills was in command in the Southern Section easily winning the D1 race in that meet. J Serra Catholic and Santiago Corona have been top 15 national teams all season. It will depend on the five Division merge before we have an idea if two come out of that state.