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Behind the Rankings - September 12, 2018 - Boys

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ILXCTF - Mike Newman   Sep 12th 2018, 10:22pm
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By Michael Newman

[email protected]

 

The days after the First to the Finish Invitational is possibly the most stressful in figuring out the rankings for the Boys’ classifications. You have ACT testing on this weekend that forces teams to run different lineups than they usually would. It also did not help that meets were cancelled the week before. It did not help that another major meet, the Lee Halberg Invitational in Springfield, was also cancelled on Saturday.

I started doing rankings about 10 years ago and early on and they were not as accurate as I had hoped. Common sense always is not the key especially when you have a ranker that has no common sense. That was me back then. You have to look at splits, times, speed rankings, and improvement or projected improvement of a team to see where they land in your top 25. Coaches asked me over the past few days how in the world are you going to do it?

This is how.

If you look at the rankings for this week on all three classifications, there are teams that dramatically moved up and down in the top 25. Most of that had to do with the cancellations from the week before. You typically see movement from teams from pre-season rankings to Week #1. This year, we did not have those moves which were doubled down after this weekend’s meets.

Downers Grove South and Huntley, who were ranked in the top 10, dropped out of the top 25. Both teams will be back sometime this year.  It was just not a great race for the Mustangs in Peoria as they finished 15th in the 3A race. Eddie Siuda finished 19th in the race where the team had a 40 second split from Siuda to second-runner George Willer. Their split was 64 seconds on their top five. Their normal second runner James Weigel had an off race placing 316th. Both the Mustangs and Weigel will be back.

Huntley finished third at Lake Park. The Red Raiders just missed the top 25 as Jones Prep, who finished second in the meet, edged them out. Huntley had three runners in the top ten but had an overall top five split of 87 seconds.

Downers Grove North and Hinsdale Central were tougher to figure out. Both stayed in the top 25. Downers Grove North were missing four of their top seven due to ACT testing and minor injuries. They had run an early season meet on their home course so calculating where the Trojans landed (at #8) took some extra work. They will run at Minooka this weekend which is a flight meet. Their next major invitational where they will run as a team is Naperville Twilight Invitational in October unless they pick up another meet which is a possibility.

This was Hinsdale Central’s first meet of the season at Peoria. They finished 14th just ahead of Downers Grove North. The Red Devils were missing three runners of their top seven due to illness. Their top runner Alec Hill has plantar fasciitis and did not run. Projecting where the top runners would have been was necessary. Central was supposed to run their JV team this weekend at Warren then running the next week at Palatine. Do we some of their “regular” varsity this weekend?

With all of that being said, let’s look at each of the three classifications for the Boys. You might need reading glasses by the time you are done reading this if you do not have them already.

 

Class 3A

We said that the three Boys classifications would be wide-open this fall. This especially true in 3A Boys. After this week, there are 30 teams that could challenge for a top 10 finish in November. I can usually see 20 teams at this point. With teams so close, we will see a fluid top 25 through the first week of October. There should be more certainty at that point…or will there be?

We don’t have a true reading on top ranked Wheaton-Warrenville South after Sean and Scott Maison did not run with their team last week at Wauconda. What we did see was a solid top four (or six with the Maison’s in there). That group, led by individual winner William Hauenstein, had a split of only 33 seconds. Throw Sean and Scott in there and you can see why this team is a top 10 national team.

Lake Park’s meet showed how good that St. Charles East is and how good they could be when we get to the state series. The Saints taking the top three spots in a meet that expected a Huntley runner possibly winning was a statement. We saw the promise of Bob Liking last spring when he ran 9:30 for 3200-meters as a sophomore. His 15:05 shows that he could be close to 14:50 this Saturday in Peoria. The Saints LOVE pack running. 10 seconds separated their top three. 45 seconds separated their top five. Add three more seconds as Zack Loomis was the team’s sixth-runner two spots behind fifth-runner Luke Schildmeyer. East also has a freshman Micah Wilson, who won the Frosh/Soph race, that could be in the top seven by the time we get to the state series. This team could have 12 runners challenge for a spot in their top seven.

Let’s get to what happened at Peoria. Here again, no cancellations the week before equals less dramatic jumps from what we saw after the First to the Finish Invitational.

Would we have overreacted the way that happened after Lyons Township finished second in this meet if they had raced the week before? Probably not. The Lions showed what Coach Michael Danner prophesied during the track season when his younger runners were showing some dramatic improvements on the track. LT found their top runner with Jack Ehlert running 14:59 to finish 12th in the race. Their pack led by Jacquel Thorpe only had a 20 second split on their next four runners. 37 seconds separated their top five. This team is young with three sophomores. It will be interesting to see the road they travel the rest of the season.

Glenbard West’s Rory Cavan said after his win at FTTF is that his team needed to work on their pack running. In their race at Fenton on September 1, their split on five was 87 seconds. The split from Cavan to their second runner Stephen Moody was 44 seconds. The split from Moody to third-runner Will O’Brien was 18 seconds with a split from three to seven at 57 seconds. Their race at FTTF showed that gap between Cavan and Moody dropped to 31 seconds. The split from Moody to O’Brien jumped from 18 seconds to 36 seconds. The three to seven split improved to 22 seconds. The key keeping O’Brien within 15 seconds of Moody and keeping that pack as close will be a key to watch.

Just like Lyons Township is for real, so is Oswego East. They ran a great race in Peoria. This was after they raced against 2A ranked Benet Academy 48 hours before. The Wolves are a team for the future with nine of their top ten runners underclassmen. They ran a 43 second split on their top five off #1 runner Luke Wentz. Oswego East gets to prove themselves this week as they return to Detweiller Park for the Richard Spring Invitational.

Keep an eye on New Trier as we get to the state series. They had 12 runners at 16-minutes or faster at FTTF. Their top five runners in the open race were only separated by five seconds. Charlie Forbes led the varsity team to a 19 second split on their top five. Coach David Wisner has a DEEP team and a nice problem with 12 runners within 33 seconds of each other. Their pack needs to move up and it will. That’s why you need to keep an eye on the Trevians.

Four teams that ran at FTTF entered the top 25 led by Maine South after the Hawks finished sixth in the 3A race. Tommy Brady was under the weather but still finished in the top ten. Maine South had a nice two to five split of 40 seconds off second runner Joey Kasch.  Rolling Meadows jumped into the top 25 for the first time at #19. Waubonsie Valley at #23 and St. Ignatius at #24 also made the final 25 this week.

Plainfield South heads to Peoria after a good race at Joliet winning the team championship ahead of Benet Academy. Christian Knowlton led the Cougars to a 53 second split on their top five runners. The split on their two to five runners was only 18 seconds. Getting that split down from Knowlton and their pack will be something to watch for over the next couple of weeks.

York finished fifth at Joliet without one of their top runners Ethan Kern. It would be easy to drop this team out of the top 25. It would have been lazy and irresponsible if I did not look at the big picture with this team as I do with every other squad when I do the rankings. They do have a good top runner with Daniel Klysh who finished second behind Knowlton. What was impressive was that the Dukes swept the first four spots in the Frosh/Soph race led by Collin Hill. Three of those F/S runners will move up to varsity but there is no rush. More experience in races will be needed before that happens. If Klysh and Hill ran in Peoria, they would have finished in the top 25. York moved from #20 to #17 in this week’s rankings. It may look “ugly” now for York, but this team is looking ahead to the state series.

Neuqua Valley was moved up two spots from #9 to #7 after winning the championship race at the Forest Park Classic in St. Louis. The Wildcats were led by Michael Madiol’s fourth-place finish. The split on their top five is deceiving at 60 seconds. Considering how bad the conditions were on the course, that split is not that bad. We should see a tighter pack from this group this weekend in Peoria.

 

2A Boys

Chatham-Glenwood and Bloomington were to race against each other at Springfield, but the meet cancellation deleted that. The two will face each other at the Peoria Invitational at the end of the month. Chatham-Glenwood stays #1 by default. The Titans should be at full strength this weekend at the Richard Spring Invitational.

Benet Academy put in two strong performances within a span of 48 hours to move from #8 up to #2. The Redwings ran a 40 second split on their top five off top runner Connor O’Keefe who finished fifth overall at Joliet. Their split from their second-runner to their fifth-runner was only 22 seconds. In their win over Oswego East at St. Viator on September 6, ran a 58 second split on their top five led by O’Keefe’s individual win. Their split on the pack was only 18 seconds. Don’t be surprised if we see this squad near the top in November.

I was surprised at the Finish Invitational of the pace that the 2A race went off. I did not expect a 15:19 to win. The course condition improved as the meet went on. It was still an exiting finish with Charlie Smith of Antioch winning passing Riley Wells in the final five meters.

We found out in the 2A race that Dixon and Kaneland were the class of the field. Dixon’s 105 points to win the team title were pushed from top 10 finishes of Collin Grady (5th) and Brock Drengenberg (8th). The Dukes ran a 61 seconds on their top five. It was their presence in the front with four in the top 25, then five in the top 52. The split on five concerns me a little, but this team has the low numbers up front to eliminate that concern.

Kaneland continues to improve scoring 148 points to place second. There were no schools that were within 100 points of the Knights. Daniel Occhipinti continues to emerge as one of the top 2A runners after his third-place finish in this race. The Knights have a nice split especially on their second through fifth runner pack. 64 seconds separated their top five runners. It was the 23 second two through five pack that caught my eye. Watch for the movement of that pack closer to Occhipinti that will be a cause for success in late October.

Metamora finished 13th in this meet but only drops to #6 in our rankings. Adam Gilbreath-Glaub had a minor injury and decided not to risk it. His coach Gene Jones said if it were near the end of the season, Adam would have been running.

Dixon was the biggest mover in the ranking jumping up 14 spots to #4. Troy Triad moved up nine spots to #13 after their 7th place FTTF finish. Danville dropped to #23 from #13. The Vikings have been riddled with early season injuries. They have plenty of time to recover in time for the state series.

Only two teams moved into the top 25 this week. Woodstock, after finishing eighth at FTTF, steps in at #14. Mt. Zion had a good performance in Peoria finishing 14th and moves into the #25 spot.

 

Class 1A

Clifton Central solidified their top ranking in 1A with a superb performance in winning at Paxton-Buckley-Loda. The Comets have a solid 1-2 in the front with Isaiah Ditta and Jeremy Snejberg separated by only six seconds in last Saturday’s race. Clifton Central had five runners in the top 19 with an 85 second split separating the group. Their split from their third runner to fifth runner was 36 seconds. The gap Ditta/Snejberg and the pack was 43 seconds. That is something to keep an eye on over their next three meets.

Stanford Olympia’s pack running was the difference in winning the 1A race at the First to the Finish Invitational. The Spartans did not have any runners finish in the top 10 individuals. Jon Neville led his team with a 17th place finish with sophomore Logan Wheeler nine seconds back in 24th. Their split in their top five was 40 seconds with six runners under 60th place. There are no “stars” on this TEAM. They do have a nucleus that could bring home a trophy from Detweiller Park in November.

There were two teams that made big leaps into the top 10 this week. El Paso-Gridley moved from #11 to #4 after finishing second in Peoria. Pack running again was the key for the Titans as Asa Smith and his brother Noah finished within five seconds of each other.  Their split on five was 34 seconds. That pack will move up as the season goes on. A team to watch heading into October.

Eureka opened their season finishing fourth at Peoria paced off top 15 finishes from Kyle Johnson (9th) and Jack Cook (12th). The Hornets have a solid four pack behind those two with 37 seconds separating the group. 47 seconds separated Cook from #3 runner Connor Standish. Not bad for a first race. That split will drop.

Five teams enter into the top 25 led by Tolono Unity’s fourth-place finish at Paxton-Buckley-Loda positioning the Rockets at #16. Pleasant Plains, who finished seventh at Peoria, is just behind at #17. Northridge Prep, after finishing third at the DePaul Golden Ram Invitational, steps in at #21. Father McGivney is in at #22, Winnebago at #23 step into the rankings after 10th and 11th place finishes in Peoria.

Photo © 2018Doug Ackerman

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