Teams will await their fate for NXN Selection Saturday

By Michael Newman

After two weekend of five Nike Cross Regional Meets, 10 Boys and Girls teams have punched their tickets to Portland’s Glendoveer Golf Course for the Nike Cross Nationals on December 3.

This Saturday will be the busiest of the three weekends as three more Regionals will take place at two locations along with the California State Meet in Fresno where two teams per gender will selected from a power merge between the five classes in this meet.

There are teams that finished third or fourth in their regional that will have to wait to see if they are among the teams picked by the NXN Selection committee.

There is always mystery in this process. There are always teams that feel they deserve to be selected to go to Portland and are left with their dreams not fulfilled as they never receive that phone call on Saturday night.

There are some solid choices that will be selected to each of the Boys and Girls Championship races. We should have a good idea after the CIF California State Meet concludes Saturday afternoon.

Let’s take a look at each the Boys and Girls Championship on who has the edge heading into Saturday’s four meets.

BOYS

There are two team after the first five NXR meets that are a step ahead the rest of the eligible qualifying teams. Both teams were ranked in the top 10 in the latest DyeStat.com National rankings.

Rocky Mountain ID comes off finishing third at the NXR Northwest Sectional on November 12 behind Oregon powers Crater OR and Portland Jesuit OR. The Grizzlies, from Meridian Idaho, were 28 points behind Jesuit. Their state meet performance was impressive on October 29 when they won the 5A State title placing 5 runners in the top 12 led by the 1-2 finish from Landon Heemeyer and Tyler Sainsbury. The Grizzlies also had a big win at the Bob Firman Invitational in September. Their state meet performance is strong enough to get them to Portland.

It was a little bit of a surprise that Utah 5A State Champion Mountain View finished third behind Utah 6A champion American Fork and Herriman UT who finished fourth in the Utah 6A race. It was not their best race in October, but they rebounded in last Saturday’s race to qualify. Mountain View in the state met power merge was the best among the six classes scoring 110 points ahead of American Fork who scored 136 points. The Bruins sixth at the Woodbridge Classic in September, but three of the teams ahead of them in that race all have qualified for NXN. Their state win pushes them to Portland without a second thought.

The next two teams in line will have to sweat it out during Saturday’s races but are good enough to be one of the four teams to be selected. Downers Grove North IL has run their best races when it has counted at the end of this year finishing third in the Illinois 3A State Meet and third at NXR Midwest Regional behind the two teams that finished ahead of them at state Hinsdale Central and Plainfield South. The Trojans finished 62 points behind South in the state race in muddy conditions. They were only 33 points behind the Cougars in Terre Haute. Downers North was close to Hinsdale Central in their conference meet by just nine points. Two weeks later in their sectional race, North won by three points ahead of NXR MW Regional Champion Hinsdale Central.

Dowling Catholic IA is a team to watch led by NXR Heartland individual champion. They finished third by just four points behind Stevens Point WI in that regional race. Dowling Catholic easily won the Iowa 4A State title. The Maroons won the Roy Griak Invitational Gold Division race in September finishing ahead of Wayzata MN who won the NXR Heartland Regional title.

Mountain Vista CO finished just six points behind Mountain View UT to place fourth at the NXR Southwest Regional last Saturday. There will be discussion of this team making it to Portland. The fact that they finished fourth in the Colorado 5A State Meet and seventh overall in the state’s power merge while no schools ahead of them made it to Portland should dismiss this discussion.

Two of the four meets on Saturday could influence the at-large process on Saturday night.

The CIF California State Meet usually produces three teams advancing to the Nike Cross Nationals. Newbury Park CA is the top team in the United States and should qualify. There are four schools (San Clemente, Ventura, San Luis Obispo, and Great Oak) that are equal to Downers Grove North and Dowling Catholic. We will see how Saturday at Fresno plays out.

I would not dismiss the NXR Southeast Regional also. Belen Jesuit FL, University WV, and Farragut TN have been ranked by DyeStat.com. All are in that time margin as DGN and DC. McCallie School TN had a great race in winning the Tennessee D2-AA State title and could be the best of this foursome. If McCallie finishes outside the top two and is third, then there needs to be discussion about this team. Otherwise, two teams should advance only.

New York Class A Champion Corning and Monroe-Woodbury NY are the teams to watch in the NXR New York Regional. Perennial area power Christian Brothers NJ is coming off a win at the NJ Meet of Champions and have been ranked in the top five nationally all season. They will be the favorites in the NXR Northeast Regional with Cherokee NJ and Hall CT among the teams chasing for the second spot. Both regions are not strong enough to produce a third at-large team.

GIRLS

The scenario is close to the same as the Boys Championship with two teams that should be selected to be in Portland. There may not be a wait for the other two spots when all is said and done on Saturday.

National top five team and Texas 6A State Champion Flower Mound finished third behind Southlake Carroll and Texas 5A Champion Lucas Lovejoy in the NXR South Regional. The margin between the three teams was only 13 points with 10 points between Lovejoy and Flower Mound. Flower Mound was just nine points ahead of Southlake Carroll in the state race. The Jaguars finished fifth at the Woodbridge Classic with four teams ahead of them all in the top 10 nationally. Their consistency up front all season makes them any easy choice in making the trip to Portland.

Niwot CO and Lone Peak UT distanced themselves in the NXR Southwest Regional with Air Academy CO 89 points behind in third. The Colorado 5A state champions were second overall in the state behind Niwot in the State Meet Power Merge. They also finished behind Niwot at the Desert Twilight Classic. A good enough team to race at NXN.

Hillard Davidson OH finished almost 100 points behind Illinois powers Prospect and York at the NXR Midwest Regional. They finished second in the Ohio D1 State Meet behind Mason OH but finished ahead of them in Terre Haute. The Wildcats won the MSU Spartan Invitational ahead of Ottawa West Holland whom they finished ahead of at NXR Midwest. Those three teams are ahead by a distance of the rest of the eligible at-large teams with Hempstead IA, Minnetonka MN, and Mountain Vista CO leading the group in that order.

Most of the action to watch for at-large teams on Saturday should come from the CIF California State Meet. Buchanan CA is a top five national team and one of the teams that will advance to Portland from Fresno. J Serra CA, Los Altos CA, and Rancho Cucamonga CA all could advance. A bad race by one of those three teams could open the door for Hillard Davidson. Otherwise, we could see four teams advancing from this state.

Saratoga Springs NY is the top national team and should easily advance from the NXR New York Regional with Bethlehem Central the team to watch for the second spot. Union Catholic NJ and Glastonbury CT are the top teams to watch in the NXR Northeast Regional. It is unlikely we will see an at-large team coming from these two regions.

Cuthbertson NC and Morgantown WV are the power teams in the NXR Southeast Regional. If a team surprises for second and one of these teams drops to third, then we could have a little suspense for an at-large NXN berth.